A newly published market analysis of Amazon’s Project Kuiper effort to create a global satellite broadband network estimates the cost of getting the project off the ground at $16.5 billion to $20 billion — which is significantly higher than the $10 billion figure cited by the company four years ago.
In its analysis, Florida-based Quilty Space projects that launch costs alone will amount to $10 billion or more. Most of those launches are to be done by United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan Centaur rocket, which has executed only one space launch to date; and by Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket, which is still in development. Other launches will be taken on by ULA’s Atlas V and SpaceX’s Falcon 9 (which are tried and true), plus Arianespace’s Ariane 6 (which had its debut liftoff in July).
Project Kuiper aims to put 3,232 satellites into low Earth orbit to support a high-speed internet network that could serve tens of millions of users around the world — and, not incidentally, provide infrastructure for Amazon Web Services and for other current or future offerings from Amazon. Under the terms of Amazon’s license from the Federal Communications Commission, half of those satellites must be launched by mid-2026.
Two prototype Kuiper satellites were successfully launched on an Atlas V last year, and Amazon says another Atlas V is to send the first operational satellites into orbit by the end of this year. The current schedule calls for broadband services to be offered to customers starting sometime next year.
Amazon is well behind SpaceX and its Starlink satellite broadband network, which has more than 6,000 satellites in orbit. Quilty’s financial analysis says Starlink “will exit 2024 with 3.9M subscribers, revenues of $6.6B, and positive free cash flows.” But Quilty suggests that there’s still room in the market for Project Kuiper.
