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Fiction Science Club

Occupy Mars? Or the moon? It’s time for a reality check

Illustrations: Moon Village and Mars habitat
Artist's concepts show a moon village at left and a Mars habitat at right. (Left image: ESA. Right image: Team SEArch+/Apis Cor via NASA)

It’s an age-old debate in space circles: Should humanity’s first city on another world be built on the moon, or on Mars?

As recently as last year, SpaceX founder Elon Musk saw missions to the moon as a “distraction.” In a post to his X social-media platform, he declared that “we’re going straight to Mars.”

But last week, Musk said he’s changed his mind: “For those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20+ years,” he wrote on X.

How realistic is either option, particularly on a 10- to 20-year time frame? In a new book titled “Becoming Martian,” Rice University evolutionary biologist Scott Solomon lays out the possibilities as well as the perils that could make Musk’s job more challenging than he thinks.

“The more research I did on this topic, and the more labs I visited, and papers I read, and experts I spoke with, what became clear to me is that we have some pretty big gaps in our knowledge, in our understanding of what the reality would be like,” Solomon says in the latest episode of the Fiction Science podcast.

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Amazon wins OK to add 4,500 satellites to Leo network

Illustration: Web of satellites covering Earth
An artist’s conception shows how additional Amazon Leo satellites would provide coverage in Earth’s polar regions. (Amazon Illustration)

Amazon has won the Federal Communications Commission’s approval to go ahead with its plan to launch thousands of second-generation Amazon Leo satellites for its broadband internet network, even though the first-generation constellation is far from complete.

The approval would add more than 4,500 satellites to the previously authorized constellation of 3,232 Gen 1 spacecraft, expanding coverage to the entire globe, including the poles.

“Amazon Leo Gen 1 performance is impressive on its own, but lots to look forward to with Leo Gen 2: More capacity, more coverage (including polar) and additional throughput — good for customers everywhere, and especially important for big enterprise/gov customers who want max performance to move large amounts of data through our network,” Rajeev Badyal, vice president of technology for Amazon Leo, said today in a LinkedIn posting.

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Stoke Space raises $350M to get set for rocket debut

Propellant tank on Stoke Space's factory floor
A propellant tank takes shape at Stoke Space’s rocket factory in Kent, Wash. (Stoke Space Photo)

Kent, Wash.-based Stoke Space Technologies says it has added another $350 million to its previously announced Series D financing round, bringing the amount raised in the round to $860 million.

The fresh funding will go toward completing activation of the company’s Florida launch complex and expanding production capacity for its fully reusable Nova launch vehicle. Additional capital will be used to accelerate future elements on Stoke’s product road map.

Terms of the round were not disclosed. With the extension of the Series D round, Stoke has raised $1.34 billion to date.

The medium-lift Nova rocket is currently under development. First liftoff from Launch Complex 14 at Cape Canaveral Space Force Station is expected sometime this year.

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Business is looking up for space station designers

Illustration: Cutaway view of laboratory workspace on Starlab space station
This cutaway view shows the interior of the Starlab space station’s laboratory. (Starlab Illustration)

How do you design a living space where there’s no up or down? That’s one of the challenges facing Teague, a Seattle-based design and innovation firm that advises space companies such as Blue Origin, Axiom Space and Voyager Technologies on how to lay out their orbital outposts.

Mike Mahoney, Teague’s senior director of space and defense programs, says the zero-gravity environment is the most interesting element to consider in space station design.

“You can’t put things on surfaces, right? You’re not going to have tables, necessarily, unless you can attach things to them, and they could be on any surface,” he told me. “So, directionality is a big factor. And knowing that opens up new opportunities. … You could have, let’s say, two scientists working in different orientations in the same area.”

Over the next few years, NASA and its partners are expected to make the transition from the aging International Space Station to an array of commercial space stations — and Teague is helping space station builders get ready for the shift.

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Starfish doubles down on Space Force satellite servicing

Illustration: Otter spacecraft in geosynchronous orbit with Earth in background
An artist’s conception shows Starfish Space’s Otter spacecraft in geosynchronous Earth orbit. (Starfish Space Illustration)

Tukwila, Wash.-based Starfish Space has been awarded a $54.5 million contract to produce another Otter satellite servicing spacecraft for the U.S. Space Force’s Space Systems Command.

The deal, announced this week, builds on a $37.5 million Space Systems Command contract that was awarded in 2024 through the Department of the Air Force’s Strategic Funding Increase program, or STRATFI. This new contract is funded through a Pentagon program called Accelerate the Procurement and Fielding of Innovative Technologies, or APFIT. Starfish noted that the award is the only APFIT contract issued to a space company in the current cycle and ranks among the largest in the program’s history.

Austin Link, co-founder of Starfish Space, said his company was “proud to grow our partnership with the Space Force under the APFIT program.”

“APFIT is a key program in transitioning platforms like Otter from development to deployed capability,” Link said today in a news release. “Through dynamic space operations and autonomous augmented maneuver, we enable the Space Force to sustain critical space assets, increase resilience and maintain operational flexibility across evolving mission demands.”

Like the earlier contract, the new one calls on Starfish to provide an Otter spacecraft for dynamic space operations in geosynchronous Earth orbit. Delivery is scheduled for 2028, with an option for two years of operational support.

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Interlune digs into opportunities for lunar construction

Interlune prototype excavator being tested on rocky patch of land
Interlune and Vermeer worked together to test a full-scale prototype of an excavator with auxiliary components. (Interlune / Vermeer Photo)

Interlune is leveraging a $150,000 NASA contract to develop develop lunar trenching and excavation technology — and although the primary goal is to extract valuable helium-3 from moon dirt, the project also signals the company’s broader play for lunar infrastructure.

Interlune’s work on the Small Business Technology Transfer Phase 1 contract, done in partnership with the Colorado School of Mines, demonstrates that the Seattle-based startup’s business model isn’t limited to helium-3. In the years ahead, the technologies pioneered by Interlune for resource extraction can also be used for building roads, base camps and other construction projects on the moon.

For example, the excavator that’s the focus of the NASA funding — known as the Scalable Implement for Lunar Trenching, or SILT — will support Interlune’ plan to sift through tons of lunar soil. But it will also support NASA’s Artemis program, which aims to establish a sustainable lunar presence in the 2030s.

“We’re looking at some other tools that would move regolith around, or prepare a site for making a road or building a radiation berm, burying a certain piece of infrastructure like a nuclear reactor,” Interlune CEO Rob Meyerson told me. “So, we’re very interested in participating in the Artemis program in broader ways, and we think the technology we’re developing for helium-3 extraction can support that.”

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Cosmic Space

Elon Musk lays out a new vision as SpaceX acquires xAI

Illustration: Starship deploying satellite with Earth in background
An artist's conception shows a Starship upper stage deploying a satellite in orbit. (SpaceX Illustration)

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says he’s making space-based artificial intelligence the “immediate focus” of a newly expanded company that not only builds rockets and satellites, but also controls xAI’s generative-AI software and the X social-media platform.

That’s the upshot of today’s announcement that SpaceX has acquired xAI. The Information quoted unnamed sources as saying that xAI was valued at $250 billion, while SpaceX’s value was set at a trillion dollars. That would make SpaceX the most valuable private company in the world — but because Musk held a controlling interest in both companies, those valuations may be somewhat subjective.

Ross Gerber, an investment adviser who tracks Musk’s business dealings, quipped on X that the world’s richest person decided to go ahead with the acquisition after “a short negotiation with himself.”

Musk said the combination of SpaceX and xAI would facilitate the creation of a new constellation of orbital data centers. SpaceX is already seeking approval from the Federal Communications Commission to put up to a million satellites in low Earth orbit for such a constellation.

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SpaceX wants to launch a million data center satellites

Starlink streaks
This time-lapse image of Venus and the Pleiades shows the tracks of SpaceX’s Starlink satellites. (Torsten Hansen / IAU OAE / CC Attribution)

SpaceX founder Elon Musk wasn’t kidding about his plans to go big with orbital data centers: The company is asking the Federal Communications Commission to approve a plan to put up to a million satellites in orbit to process data for artificial intelligence applications.

“Launching a constellation of a million satellites that operate as orbital data centers is a first step towards becoming a Kardashev II-level civilization — one that can harness the sun’s full power — while supporting AI-driven applications for billions of people today and ensuring humanity’s multiplanetary future amongst the stars,” SpaceX said in an application filed with the FCC on Friday.

If realized, the plan could pose a challenge to AI titans including Microsoft, Amazon, Google and OpenAI — and to Seattle-area space companies such as Starcloud, Sophia Space and Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin space venture, all of which are aiming to serve the emerging market for AI data centers.

On the other hand, it could be a boon for SpaceX’s manufacturing facility in Redmond, Wash., which produces the satellites for SpaceX’s Starlink broadband constellation; and for Musk’s xAI company, which has been the focus of merger talks as SpaceX considers an initial public offering. The Wall Street Journal quoted unidentified sources as saying that Musk decided to take SpaceX public in part to raise more capital to build orbital data centers and to help xAI.

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Amazon asks FCC for more time to launch Leo satellites

Atlas 5 rocket launch with Amazon Leo satellites
An Atlas 5 rocket rises from its Florida launch pad in December to send 27 Amazon Leo satellites into orbit. (United Launch Alliance Photo)

Amazon says it’s been harder than expected to secure rides for its Amazon Leo broadband internet satellites, and now it’s asking the Federal Communications Commission for more time.

The request for an extension, filed today, asks the FCC to give Amazon until July 30, 2028, to deploy half of its 3,232 satellites in low Earth orbit. The current deadline is July 30, 2026.

Amazon said it’s spent more than $10 billion on its Leo constellation and has reserved more than 100 launches to get the satellites in their proper orbits. But it acknowledged that it’ll miss the original deadline, which was set in 2020 when the FCC gave the initial go-ahead for what was then known as Project Kuiper.

“Despite a historic reserve of launch capacity and deep investments in launch infrastructure, Amazon Leo has faced a shortage in the near-term availability of launches,” the company said. “This shortage has been driven by manufacturing disruptions, the failure and grounding of new launch vehicles, and limitations in spaceport capacity.”

Citing the launch availability gap, Amazon said it has had to reduce the production rate at its satellite manufacturing facility in Kirkland, Wash. “Amazon Leo is capable of consistently manufacturing 30 satellites per week — or over 1,500 satellites per year,” the company said. “To date, Amazon Leo has produced hundreds of flight-qualified satellites, and could readily have produced a multiple of this amount but for adjustments to its production schedule made in response to the delays in its launch manifest.”

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Fiction Science Club

Why NASA is going nuclear for a power play on the moon

Illustration: Nuclear power plant with a tower-type radiator
An artist's conception shows a nuclear power plant on the moon. (Lockheed Martin Illustration)

Almost 60 years after America won the first space race, the moon is once again the focus of a competition between superpowers: Who’ll be the first to put a nuclear-powered base on the lunar surface?

And just as President John F. Kennedy set a goal of landing astronauts on the moon and bringing them back safely “before the decade is out,” NASA and the Department of Energy have set another end-of-decade deadline for developing a nuclear reactor for use on the moon. The current plan calls for demonstrating a 40-kilowatt power plant by 2030.

Why 2030? Roger Myers, an aerospace consultant who has been in the business of developing in-space power and propulsion systems for decades at NASA and Aerojet Rocketdyne, says the timing is tied to China’s ambition to set up its own moon base by 2035.

“China has announced many times in the last few years that they plan to land their astronauts, their taikonauts, on the surface of the moon by 2030, and they want to have a sustained presence on the surface of the moon by 2035,” he says in the latest episode of the Fiction Science podcast. “The United States has a decision to make: Do we want every human on the planet to look up every night and see just a Chinese flag? Or do we want them to see a Chinese and an American flag?”

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