Tag: B612 Foundation

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A plan to manage asteroid mining wins Schweickart Prize

Illustration: Mining spacecraft on asteroid with Earth in background
An artist's conception shows an asteroid mining operation with Earth in the background. (Credit: NASA)

The $10,000 Schweickart Prize is awarded every June to mark Asteroid Day and draw attention to risks from above — and this year’s prize is going to a team of students who are proposing a panel to focus on what could happen when we start tinkering with asteroids.

The winning proposal calls for the creation of a Panel on Asteroid Orbit Alteration, which would address the risks posed by unintended asteroid orbit changes. Such changes could crop up during asteroid mining operations, research missions to asteroids, or even when a spacecraft malfunctions and kicks an asteroid onto a perilous path.

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Asteroid will miss Earth — but may set off lunar light show

Graphic: Diagram showing line of probability for 2024 YR4 collision with moon
The yellow streak represents possible locations of asteroid 2024 YR4 on Dec. 22, 2032, as calculated on April 2, 2025. (NASA / JPL / CNEOS)

Although astronomers have ruled out a smash-up between Earth and an asteroid known as 2024 YR4 in the year 2032, the building-sized space rock still has a chance of hitting the moon. In fact, the chances — slight as they are — have doubled in the past month.

The latest assessment from NASA puts the probability of a lunar impact on Dec. 22, 2032, at 3.8%. That’s an increase from the 1.7% figure that was reported in February. Since then, further observations made by ground-based telescopes and NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope have somewhat reduced the uncertainty over where exactly the asteroid will be when its orbit intersects Earth’s orbital path (and the moon’s).

Over the course of observing 2024 YR4, astronomers had set the chances of a collision with Earth in 2032 as high as 2.3% — but that wasn’t because of what the asteroid may or may not do over the next seven years. Instead, it merely reflected how little was known about YR4’s precise orbit. The chances of an Earth impact fell to zero more than a month ago as more observations came in.

Something similar might well happen to the chances for a lunar impact. If the calculations progress the way they usually do for asteroid orbits, the chances may go up for a while but then vanish completely. Stay tuned: The Webb telescope is due to check in again with YR4 in late April or early May.

What if it turns out that the asteroid is truly on course to hit the moon? “There might be an unbelievable light show,” former NASA astronaut Ed Lu, who’s in charge of the B612 Foundation’s Asteroid Institute, said last week at the University of Washington.

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Universe Today

Schweickart Prize boosts new way to find killer asteroids

2013 Chelyabinsk meteor trail
This vapor trail was left behind by an asteroid that zoomed over the Siberian city of Chelyabinsk in 2013. (Credit: Alex Alishevskikh via NASA)

Every year on June 30, Asteroid Day marks the anniversary of a meteor airburst in 1908 that leveled hundreds of square miles of Siberian forest land. But a more recent meteor blast — and a new plan for getting advance warning of the next one — is receiving some added attention for this year’s Asteroid Day.

The first-ever Schweickart Prize, named in honor of Apollo 9 astronaut Rusty Schweickart, is going to a researcher who has proposed a system for spotting potentially threatening asteroids coming at us from a difficult-to-monitor zone between Earth and the sun. It was just such an asteroid that blew up over the Siberian city of Chelyabinsk in 2013, spraying debris that injured about 1,500 people and caused an estimated $33 million in property damage.

The proposal from astronomy Ph.D. student Joseph DeMartini calls for setting up a consortium of ground-based observatories, anchored by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile, to focus on the twilight sky just after sunset and just before sunrise. Those are the times of day when astronomers have the best chance of finding sunward near-Earth objects (NEOs) that spend much of their time within Earth’s orbit.

“It’s a very interesting proposal that we hope gets picked up,” Rusty Schweickart said.

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Asteroid hunters make 27,500 new finds in old data

Asteroid orbital tracks
This visualization shows trajectories for scores of asteroids. (B612 Asteroid Institute / UW Dirac Institute / OpenSpace Project)

A team of asteroid hunters that includes researchers at the University of Washington says it has identified 27,500 new, high-confidence asteroid discovery candidates — not by making fresh observations of the night sky, but by sifting through archives of astronomical data.

The weeks-long database search was conducted by the Asteroid Institute, a program of the nonprofit B612 Foundation, in partnership with UW’s DiRAC Institute and Google Cloud.

The two institutes developed a program called THOR, which stands for “Tracklet-less Heliocentric Orbit Recovery.” THOR runs on a cloud-based, open-source platform known as ADAM (“Asteroid Discovery Analysis and Mapping”). The program can analyze the positions of millions of moving points of light observed in the sky over a given period of time, and link those points together in ways that are consistent with orbital paths.

Google Cloud’s Office of the CTO collaborated with the Asteroid Institute to fine-tune its algorithms for Google Cloud. The project analyzed 5.4 billion observations drawn from the NOIRLab Source Catalog Data Release 2.

“What is exciting is that we are using electrons in data centers, in addition to the usual photons in telescopes, to make astronomical discoveries,” Ed Lu, executive director of the Asteroid Institute, said in a news release.

Most of the 27,500 asteroid discovery candidates are in the main belt, between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter. But the candidates also include more than 100 apparent near-Earth asteroids.

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How using the cloud can rev up the search for asteroids

Asteroid orbital tracks
This visualization shows trajectories for scores of asteroids. (B612 Asteroid Institute / UW Dirac Institute / OpenSpace Project)

Astronomers have used a cloud-based technique pioneered at the University of Washington to identify and track asteroids in bunches of a hundred or more. Their achievement could dramatically accelerate the quest to find potentially threatening space rocks.

The technique makes use of an open-source analysis platform known as Asteroid Discovery Analysis and Mapping, or ADAM; plus a recently developed algorithm called Tracklet-less Heliocentric Orbit Recovery, or THOR. The THOR algorithm was created by Joachim Moeyens, an Asteroid Institute Fellow at UW; and Mario Juric, director of UW’s DiRAC Institute.

Teaming up ADAM and THOR may sound like a cross between a Bible story and a Marvel comic, but this dynamic duo’s superpower is strictly scientific: When ADAM runs the THOR algorithm, the software can determine the orbits of asteroids, even previously unidentified asteroids, by sifting through any large database of astronomical observations.

ADAM has been a long-term project for the Asteroid Institute, a program of the California-based B612 Foundation.

“Discovering and tracking asteroids is crucial to understanding our solar system, enabling development of space, and protecting our planet from asteroid impacts,” former NASA astronaut Ed Lu, the Asteroid Institute’s executive director, said today in a news release. “With THOR running on ADAM, any telescope with an archive can now become an asteroid search telescope.”

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Spotlight shines on asteroid perils and prospects

DART spacecraft
Artwork shows NASA’s DART spacecraft approaching a binary asteroid. (NASA / JHUAPL Illustration)

Asteroid Day marks a catastrophic cosmic blast that flattened Siberian forests on June 30, 1908 — but the theme for this year’s observance is hope rather than dread.

“It’s a really exciting time for planetary defense,” former NASA astronaut Ed Lu, executive director of the B612 Foundation’s Asteroid Institute, told reporters today during the buildup to the anniversary. And the University of Washington’s DIRAC Institute has a starring role.

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Asteroid Institute launches its first research fellows

Asteroid tracks
The Asteroid Detection Analysis and Mapping software, or ADAM, can plot the courses of multiple asteroids, as shown in this visualization. (B612 Asteroid Institute via YouTube)

A Silicon Valley institute focusing on the perils and prospects posed by near-Earth objects has chosen its first senior research fellows to work at the University of Washington.

Bryce Bolin and Sarah Greenstreet will work under the direction of the Asteroid Institute’s executive director, Ed Lu, a former NASA astronaut and co-founder of the B612 Foundation.

“The team is growing,” Lu told GeekWire.

Like B612, the Asteroid Institute focuses on the issue of tracking and potentially deflecting asteroids that have a chance of hitting Earth. The institute puts its emphasis on research tools and technologies that can aid in planetary defense.

Lu said Bolin and Greenstreet will help with projects such as B612’s Asteroid Decision Analysis and Mapping project. ADAM has been compared to a Google Maps for solar system objects — which is an apt comparison, considering that Lu worked on Google Maps for a time after leaving NASA in 2007.

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Tech companies join asteroid-tracking campaign

Asteroid tracks
The Asteroid Detection Analysis and Mapping software, or ADAM, can plot the courses of multiple asteroids and other celestial bodies, as shown in this visualization. (B612 Asteroid Institute via YouTube)

Google Cloud and AGI (a.k.a. Analytical Graphics Inc.) have gotten on board with the B612 Asteroid Institute to develop a cloud-based platform for keeping track of asteroid discoveries.

The two companies have become technology partners for the Asteroid Decision Analysis and Mapping project, or ADAM, which aims to provide the software infrastructure for analyzing the trajectories of near-Earth objects, identifying potential threats, and sizing up the scenarios for taking action if necessary.

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Asteroid Institute gears up to protect Earth

Gravity tractor
How do you divert a potentially threatening asteroid? One of the suggested scenarios is to station a “gravity tractor” near the asteroid so that the gravitational interaction gradually shifts the threatening object to a non-threatening trajectory. (FIAAA / B612 Foundation Illustration / Dan Durda)

The B612 Foundation is setting up an Asteroid Institute to study techniques for detecting and diverting near-Earth objects that may threaten our planet – and giving the University of Washington a leading role.

The B612 Asteroid Institute’s first two postdoctoral research fellows will be posted to UW’s DIRAC Institute, where they’ll help develop analytical tools to track asteroids and assess how much of an impact risk they pose.

That task meshes with the 15-year-old B612 Foundation’s mission of calling attention to the asteroid threat and the technologies that will be needed to spare us from the fate that the dinosaurs faced 65 million years ago.

“In a sense, the Asteroid Institute reflects what we’ve always been doing,” B612 President Danica Remy told GeekWire during a visit to Seattle.

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To nuke or not: Asteroid plans take shape

Image: Asteroid entering atmosphere
An artist’s conception shows an asteroid entering Earth’s atmosphere. (Credit: NASA)

What should the world do about the potential threat of a catastrophic asteroid collision? This month NASA established the Planetary Defense Coordination Office to manage the issue. Meanwhile, the Russians and the Europeans are talking aboutdiverting nasty space rocks with nuclear weapons.

All this comes as cosmic threats are getting ready to hit prime time, in the form of an NBC comedy titled “You, Me and the Apocalypse.” (The threat in this case is a comet, not an asteroid.)

Former astronaut Ed Lu, CEO of the B612 Foundation, is glad for all the attention. For years, B612 has been trying to raise awareness about the asteroid threat, with mixed success. In a statement posted on Facebook today, Lu noted that NASA’s actions come in response to a highly critical internal report about NASA’s asteroid-hunting effort.

Another indication of a turning tide is contained in last month’s omnibus spending bill, which sets aside $50 million for the effort during fiscal year 2016. That’s 10 times more than NASA was spending in 2010.

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