Virus forecasts converge, but will there be a surge?

COVID-19 deaths

This chart shows the daily COVID-19 death count in the U.S. as a dark red line, with the rolling average as a dotted line, up to the present. Looking ahead, the projection from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation calls for a steady decline (light red dotted line), while the projection from data scientist Youyang Gu calls for a slight increase in daily deaths (dark red dotted line). Both projections see the rate largely stabilizing in August. IHME’s model calls for a plateau at about 550 deaths per day, while Youyang Gu’s model builds to a peak of more than 900 daily deaths. (IHME / COVID19-projections. com)

Dueling projections for the course of the COVID-19 pandemic are converging on a narrower range of estimates for this summer, as expected, but the longer-term outlook doesn’t call for coronavirus infections to fade away quickly.

Get the news brief on GeekWire.

About Alan Boyle

Aerospace and science editor for GeekWire, creator of Cosmic Log, author of "The Case for Pluto: How a Little Planet Made a Big Difference," president of the Council for the Advancement of Science Writing. Check out "About Alan Boyle" for more fun facts.
This entry was posted in GeekWire and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.