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Trump’s victory highlights automation vs. jobs

Ford auto factory
Robots work on Ford trucks at a factory in Norfolk, Va. The plant was closed in 2007. (Ford Photo)

Six months ago, computer scientist Moshe Vardi felt as if he was a voice crying in the wilderness when it came to automation’s anticipated effect on the job market. No political candidate, it seemed, was talking about the potential impact of autonomous cars and automated manufacturing on future employment.

Today, the topic still isn’t quite on President-elect Donald Trump’s radar screen. But his election has gotten a lot more experts talking about the issue.

“It went from being somewhat esoteric to being practically mainstream,” Rice University’s Vardi told GeekWire.

Since the election, Trump has put jobs front and center on his agenda.

“Whether it’s producing steel, building cars or curing disease, I want the next generation of production and innovation to happen right here, in our great homeland, America, creating wealth and jobs for American workers,” he said this week in a YouTube video.

But Trump’s prescription focuses on renegotiating (or withdrawing from) trade deals, doubling down on fossil-fuel sources, cutting back on regulations and cracking down on work visas.

Even if Trump and congressional leaders follow through on those initiatives, they won’t address what Vardi and other analysts say is a fundamental shift that will transform the very nature of work in the decades to come: the rise of robotics and artificial intelligence.

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How Donald Trump could affect space ventures

Image: Donald Trump in Space
Bobbleheads.com used a high-altitude balloon to send a Donald Trump figurine into the stratosphere in May. Click on the image for more about the “Trump in Space” project. (Bobbleheads.com via YouTube)

President-elect Donald Trump’s advisers say they want to rely more on commercial ventures to pioneer the space frontier – but some of those ventures’ high-profile backers aren’t exactly in line with other parts of Trump’s policy agenda.

For example, SpaceX’s billionaire CEO, Elon Musk, sees climate change as the biggest challenge facing humanity on Earth and has said a tax on carbon emissions is as necessary as garbage collection fees.

In contrast, Trump has said concerns about climate change are a hoax perpetrated by the Chinese, and has vowed to “cancel” U.S. participation in the recently established Paris climate pact. (The Chinese say they’re trying to set Trump straight on that point.)

Amazon billionaire Jeff Bezos, who founded Blue Origin to send passengers and payloads into space, is also the owner of The Washington Post. The Post, Amazon and Bezos were all caught up in Trump’s ire during the campaign.

On the flip side of the issue, there’s at least one space billionaire who can hardly wait for Trump to get into office: Robert Bigelow, the founder of Bigelow Aerospace.

“Christmas arrived early this year!” Bigelow declared at the Space Commerce Conference in Houston on Thursday. “For the United States – and as I do believe will be eventually proven, for NASA – Christmas arrived on November the 8th.”

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#CalExit spurs dreams of Cascadia

Image: Cascadia flag
The Cascadia Doug flag was designed in 1994 by Portland native Alexander Baretich. The blue stands for the sky and ocean, the white represents snow and clouds, and the green stands for the Northwest’s forests and fields. The lone Douglas fir symbolizes endurance, defiance and resistance. (Credit: CascadiaNow.org)

In the wake of Donald Trump’s election, true-blue California is talking about making a #CalExit – and that’s stirred up some buzz about a blue breakaway for Washington state and Oregon as well.

One manifestation is the renewed interest in the Republic of Cascadia, a “bioregion” that would take in sections of British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, California, Nevada, Utah and Wyoming. (Washington is the only state that’s wholly within Cascadia as it’s conceived.) The rationale is that the region is environmentally and economically distinct from its surroundings.

Ozy.com notes that the concept is picking up steam thanks to websites like Free CascadiaCascadiaNow! and Yes Cascadia, as well as a Reddit subgroup that’s on the rise. More than 200 people already have signed up via Facebook to attend a “Cascadian People’s Assembly” in Seattle on Nov. 19, with follow-up meetingsplanned for the Sunday after Thanksgiving.

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Trump transition team sets up GreatAgain.gov

GreatAgain.gov website

President-elect Donald Trump’s transition team is now part of the government, at least online, in the form of a GreatAgain.gov website.

The website, registered through the General Services Administration, is a traditional element of the federally funded transition between administrations, carried out under the terms of the 2010 Pre-Election Presidential Transition Act.

The GSA has been supporting transition activities for months, not only for the Trump team but for Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton’s team as well.

GreatAgain.gov, which is inspired by Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan, made its public debut on Nov. 9, a day after the election. But it was primed for action even before the outcome was known. On Nov. 6, for example, the website noted that 4,000 political appointees would be leaving to make room for the new administration.

“Finding qualified people to fill these jobs is an enormous undertaking, but it is critically important to making the federal government work effectively for the American public,” according to the posting, which mirrors a notice that was posted by the Center for Presidential Transition back in March.

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How President Trump will change science policy

Donald Trump in coal country
Donald Trump models a coal miner’s helmet in Charleston, W.Va., where he received the endorsement of the West Virginia Coal Association. (Credit: Right Side Broadcasting via YouTube)

Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the presidential election opens the way for a profound reversal in environmental policies, even as officials are working on implementing this year’s Paris climate agreement.

During the campaign, Trump repeatedly declared that climate concerns were a hoax, and that he intends to “cancel” U.S. compliance with the pact that was reached in Paris.

The agreement, which officially entered into force just five days ago, currently calls on the United States to reduce carbon emissions by at least 26 percent from its 2005 levels over the next nine years.

This week, officials from more than 200 nations are meeting in Morocco to hash out the details surrounding implementation of the agreement. Officials and activists said they would soldier on despite Trump’s past statements.

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Why some (but not all) polls were wrong

Daybreak Poll
The USC Dornsife / Los Angeles Times “Daybreak” poll tracked Donald Trump’s ratings (in red) and Hillary Clinton’s ratings (in blue) using a protocol that took the depth of respondents’ support for candidates into account. This shows how the number changed over the final weeks of the campaign. (Credit: L.A. Times)

It may look as if pollsters got the presidential election horribly wrong, considering that Hillary Clinton had been favored over Donald Trump, who ended up winning. But they weren’t as wrong as it looks.

For one thing, Clinton seems assured of winning more of the total popular vote once all the returns are in. It’s a quirk of America’s electoral system that votes are awarded on a state-by-state basis. The founding fathers set up the Electoral College that way by design, to balance the power given to big states (like New York) against smaller states (like Wyoming). That played to Trump’s strength in rural areas.

Because of the Electoral College system, pollsters will have to de-emphasize popular-vote predictions in the future, according to David Rothschild, the economist at Microsoft Research who runs a political prediction market called PredictWise.

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Live blog: Track the trends in Election Day tech

Image: Mike Pence and Donald Trump
President-Elect Donald Trump addresses a victory rally at the New York Hilton Midtown, with Vice President-Elect Mike Pence at his side. (Credit: Right Side Broadcasting)

What’s working and what’s failing on Election Day? Who’s getting it right, and who’s doing it wrong? When will we know who’s won? And which tweets are winning the Internet today?

We’re live-blogging throughout the day to document how technological twists ranging from electronic voting to social media to political prediction markets are helping or hindering the voting process. Check back often, and check out our tips for monitoring Election Day in real time.

Check out the day’s full blog at GeekWire.

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Can FBI check 650K emails? Snowden says yes

How hard is it to check hundreds of thousands of emails? Not that hard. (© Gajus via Fotolia)
How hard is it to check hundreds of thousands of emails? Not that hard. (© Gajus via Fotolia)

GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump and his supporters are questioning whether the FBI could have sifted through 650,000 emails quickly enough to clear his Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, just nine days after they were discovered.

But the FBI and cybersecurity experts say it can be done with database scanning software – and one of those experts is none other than Edward Snowden, the fugitive whistleblower who’s hoping to get a presidential pardon.

The debate unfolded today in the wake of FBI Director James Comey’s announcement that a search through a laptop used by Clinton aide Huma Abedin turned up nothing to change “our conclusions that we expressed in July with respect to Secretary Clinton.”

In other words, the FBI investigation into Clinton’s emails remains closed, with no charges sought.

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Elon Musk holds forth on the election and more

Image: Elon Musk
Elon Musk is the billionaire CEO of SpaceX and Tesla. (Credit: AGU file)

Today Elon Musk laid out his views on electricity-generating solar roofs, the Tesla-SolarCity merger, SpaceX’s return to flight and artificial intelligence during an extraordinary 30-minute telephone interview on CNBC.

His timeliest comments may relate to next week’s presidential election: Musk gave a lukewarm endorsement to Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.

“I would say it’s not going to make much of a difference one way or the other, honestly,” he said. “I think Hillary’s economic policies and her environmental policies particularly are the right ones, you know? Yeah. Also, I don’t think this is the finest moment of our democracy in general. But so it goes.”

So what about GOP candidate Donald Trump? “I feel a bit stronger that probably he’s not the right guy,” Musk said. “He just doesn’t seem to have the sort of character that reflects well on the United States.”

Musk – who’s the billionaire CEO of the SpaceX rocket venture and the Tesla electric-car concern as well as chairman of SolarCity, a producer of solar panels – touched on a wide range of topics, with occasional commentary from one of Tesla’s biggest investors, billionaire Ron Baron.

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Hillary Clinton slumps, Donald Trump jumps

Clinton and Trump
The odds that Donald Trump will be elected president rose from its slump on the Iowa Electronic Markets, presumably due to reports about Hillary Clinton’s emails. (GeekWire graphic)

How much of a game-changer is the report that the FBI is looking into emails linked to an aide to Hillary Clinton, less than two weeks before the election? It’s a shocker, based on news reports as well as a sharp drop in Clinton’s stock on the Iowa Electronic Markets.

The IEM is one of the few places in the U.S. where traders can legally put down real money on the chances that a candidate will be elected president. It’s been weighing presidential campaigns – and doing at least as well as traditional polls – since 1988.

The market was set up by the University of Iowa’s Tippie College of Business as an educational project to study whether market-based mechanisms could anticipate real-world outcomes in realms outside the business world.

Other political prediction markets, ranging from PredictWise to FiveThirtyEight to Bing, have followed in the IEM’s footsteps. Those markets, however, generally aren’t as quick to reflect sudden changes in how traders see the campaign shaping up.

Before today, the IEM’s traders were assessing Clinton’s chances of election at around 90 percent. After the FBI news broke, those chances plunged to around 68 percent. GOP candidate Donald Trump’s chances rose correspondingly, from 10 to around 32 percent.

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