Tag Archives: Prediction Markets

Who’ll get to Mars first? Oddsmakers favor SpaceX

If sending humans to Mars is a race, which team is favored to win? Bookies give the nod to Elon Musk’s SpaceX and Amazon founder Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin venture, but it’ll be years before any bet pays off. David Strauss, an analyst and … Continue reading

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Who takes the prize for Oscar predictions?

Looks like the living, breathing humans — and Unanimous AI — take the statuette for Oscar predictions this year. The Academy Awards are literally the gold standard when it comes to Hollywood movies, but they’re also a testing ground for a far … Continue reading

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Take two for ‘Person of the Year’ forecast: #MeToo

It took more than one try, but Unanimous AI’s crowdsourced hive mind was correct when it picked #MeToo as the likeliest prospect for Time’s “Person of the Year.” Get the story on GeekWire.

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Why some (but not all) polls were wrong

It may look as if pollsters got the presidential election horribly wrong, considering that Hillary Clinton had been favored over Donald Trump, who ended up winning. But they weren’t as wrong as it looks. For one thing, Clinton seems assured … Continue reading

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Hillary Clinton slumps, Donald Trump jumps

How much of a game-changer is the report that the FBI is looking into emails linked to an aide to Hillary Clinton, less than two weeks before the election? It’s a shocker, based on news reports as well as a sharp drop in … Continue reading

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Who’ll win ‘Game of Thrones’? Play the market

She belongs to a political family who used to be in power. She’s leading the odds to take the reins of power again. And she’s a blonde. No, we’re not talking about Hillary Clinton: The powerful woman in question is Daenerys Targaryen, … Continue reading

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Iowa caucuses throw predictions into a tizzy

The Iowans have spoken, and the GOP presidential caucuses confounded the prediction markets by giving Ted Cruz the edge over Donald Trump. Trump had been favored by the markets – but when tonight’s results became clear, his stock tumbled to near zero while … Continue reading

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