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Fiction Science Club

Occupy Mars? Or the moon? It’s time for a reality check

Illustrations: Moon Village and Mars habitat
Artist's concepts show a moon village at left and a Mars habitat at right. (Left image: ESA. Right image: Team SEArch+/Apis Cor via NASA)

It’s an age-old debate in space circles: Should humanity’s first city on another world be built on the moon, or on Mars?

As recently as last year, SpaceX founder Elon Musk saw missions to the moon as a “distraction.” In a post to his X social-media platform, he declared that “we’re going straight to Mars.”

But last week, Musk said he’s changed his mind: “For those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20+ years,” he wrote on X.

How realistic is either option, particularly on a 10- to 20-year time frame? In a new book titled “Becoming Martian,” Rice University evolutionary biologist Scott Solomon lays out the possibilities as well as the perils that could make Musk’s job more challenging than he thinks.

“The more research I did on this topic, and the more labs I visited, and papers I read, and experts I spoke with, what became clear to me is that we have some pretty big gaps in our knowledge, in our understanding of what the reality would be like,” Solomon says in the latest episode of the Fiction Science podcast.

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Why NASA is going nuclear for a power play on the moon

Illustration: Nuclear power plant with a tower-type radiator
An artist's conception shows a nuclear power plant on the moon. (Lockheed Martin Illustration)

Almost 60 years after America won the first space race, the moon is once again the focus of a competition between superpowers: Who’ll be the first to put a nuclear-powered base on the lunar surface?

And just as President John F. Kennedy set a goal of landing astronauts on the moon and bringing them back safely “before the decade is out,” NASA and the Department of Energy have set another end-of-decade deadline for developing a nuclear reactor for use on the moon. The current plan calls for demonstrating a 40-kilowatt power plant by 2030.

Why 2030? Roger Myers, an aerospace consultant who has been in the business of developing in-space power and propulsion systems for decades at NASA and Aerojet Rocketdyne, says the timing is tied to China’s ambition to set up its own moon base by 2035.

“China has announced many times in the last few years that they plan to land their astronauts, their taikonauts, on the surface of the moon by 2030, and they want to have a sustained presence on the surface of the moon by 2035,” he says in the latest episode of the Fiction Science podcast. “The United States has a decision to make: Do we want every human on the planet to look up every night and see just a Chinese flag? Or do we want them to see a Chinese and an American flag?”

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Fiction Science Club

A fictional Grand Tour portrays Pluto as it really is

New Horizons view of Sputnik Planitia
NASA's New Horizons probe sent back a view of a Texas-sized ice sheet known as Sputnik Planitia. (Credit: NASA GSFC / SwRI / JHUAPL)

NASA’s New Horizons mission to Pluto has forced astronomers to rewrite their textbooks — but that’s not all: New Horizons also forced Les Johnson to rewrite a novel.

The space scientist was tasked with taking notes that the famed science-fiction writer and editor Ben Bova left behind when he died in 2020, and turning them into a novel set on Pluto to close out Bova’s Grand Tour series of solar system tales.

In the material that Bova had written for “Pluto,” he described a rocky world with just a little bit of ice on it. But when Johnson sent those notes to planetary scientist Alan Stern, the New Horizons mission’s principal investigator, had to set him straight.

“His first comment back to me was, ‘We never found anything on Pluto that was anything like that,'” Johnson says in the latest episode of the Fiction Science podcast. “And so I realized at that point that I was going to have to go back and revise the science behind the story of the environment on Pluto.”

The result is one of the first works of fiction that provides detailed descriptions of Pluto’s true surroundings, right down to the orange-tinged ice sheet of Sputnik Planitia and the dark and dirty spot on Charon, Pluto’s largest moon.

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Fiction Science Club

Native American legends get woven into an alien tale

Petroglyphs showing a spiral and a horned figure carved into sandstone
Pictures carved into Utah sandstone call to mind the "Sky People" of ancient legends. (Courtesy of the Utah Geological Survey / Mark Milligan)

Centuries before the Roswell UFO Incident, Native Americans had their own stories to tell about alien visitations — for example, about the “Sky People” who traveled from the Pleiades star cluster to Earth and have a special bond with the Cherokee Nation.

In a newly published novel titled “Hole in the Sky,” Cherokee science-fiction author Daniel H. Wilson blends those stories with up-to-date speculation about UFOs, now also known as unidentified anomalous phenomena or UAPs, to deliver a fresh take on the classic tale of first contact with an alien civilization.

Wilson says the typical alien-invasion tale tends to parallel the real-life story of European settlement in the Americas.

“I love robot uprisings and alien invasions, and the more I thought about it, you realize that in an alien invasion, the aliens show up, and they usually want to extract our resources, take our land, our water, destroy our culture, enslave us,” he says in the latest episode of the Fiction Science podcast. “That’s kind of a really thinly veiled fear projection that what colonizers have done to Indigenous people will be done to our society. And so I started from there.”

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Fiction Science Club

How billionaires boost America in space race with China

Blended image of Elon Musk celebrating after launch of NASA astronauts, and Jeff Bezos celebrating after first crewed New Shepard launch
Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos have both celebrated space victories. (Left: GeekWire Photo / Kevin Lisota, 2020. Right: Blue Origin Photo, 2021)

Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin space venture has only just begun to launch a heavy-lift rocket that was a decade in the making — its orbital-class New Glenn launch vehicle, which had its first flight in January. But it’s already planning something even bigger to rival Starship, the super-rocket built by Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

Bezos simply isn’t ready to share those plans yet.

Actually, a super-heavy-lift rocket concept known as New Armstrong (named in honor of first moonwalker Neil Armstrong) has been talked about for almost as long as New Glenn (whose name pays tribute to John Glenn, the first American in orbit). Bezos mentioned the idea way back in 2016, but said at the time that it was “a story for the future.”

Details about New Armstrong are still a story for the future, according to an account in “Rocket Dreams,” a book about the billionaire space race written by Washington Post staff writer Christian Davenport.

“They’ve been very quiet about it,” Davenport says in the latest episode of the Fiction Science podcast. “I asked Jeff specifically about that at the New Glenn launch, and he didn’t want to talk about it.”

In the book, he quotes Bezos as saying only that “we are working on a vehicle that will come after New Glenn and lift more mass.”

New Armstrong is one of the few mysteries that Davenport wasn’t able to crack in his account of the space rivalry between Bezos and Musk. Davenport first addressed that rivalry seven years ago in a book titled “Space Barons,” but this updated saga is set in the context of an even bigger rivalry between America and China. Both nations are aiming to send astronauts to the moon by 2030, if not before.

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Fiction Science Club

Climate-fiction thriller explores Florida’s flooded future

Detail from "Salvagia" book cover
The cover art for "Salvagia" features a semi-sentient boat and "atmo-breaker" rockets. (Artwork: Steve Thomas for Diversion Books)

How will technology — and society — adapt to the dramatic effects that climate change is expected to bring? Will necessity become the mother of invention in a world of rising seas? Will it be business as usual? Or will it be a little bit of both those scenarios?

A new sci-fi novel called “Salvagia” takes the third way: There are high-tech salvagers who make ends meet by dredging up artifacts from the flooded ruins of Miami. There are high-flying daredevils who race rockets through minefields of space junk.  And there are also greedy folks who dream of using massive machines to build high-rises on South Florida’s new coast.

Guess which ones are the bad guys.

The book’s author, Tim Chawaga, says he wanted to blend the glittery tech of our modern world with the gritty drama of a Florida noir crime novel. “I wanted it to be like street-level conversations about how individual people can use technology in more powerful ways,” he says in the latest episode of the Fiction Science podcast.

“It’s characters who are outsiders, outside of institutions, trying to build something else. … It’s not likely that they will achieve that in a meaningful and significant way. Maybe at best, incremental. And that feels very noirish to me,” he says.

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Fiction Science Club

Fiction outweighs fact in ‘Jurassic World’ dinosaur tale

Scarlett Johansson with film clapperboard in foreground
Scarlett Johansson gets ready to film a scene for "Jurassic World Rebirth." (Jasin Boland / Universal Pictures - © Universal Studios)

Nathan Myhrvold, a Seattle tech titan who also studies titanosaurs and other denizens of the dinosaur era, realizes that “Jurassic World Rebirth” is science fiction, not a documentary — nevertheless, he has a few bones to pick with the filmmakers.

“There are some lines that it would be silly to cross, but they did anyway,” says Myhrvold, who was Microsoft’s first chief technology officer back in the 1990s and is currently the CEO of Bellevue, Wash.-based Intellectual Ventures.

Paleontology is one of Myhrvold’s many interests, and he’s a co-author of more than a dozen peer-reviewed papers on the subject. He was inspired to get into dinosaur research almost 30 years ago, when he visited a “Jurassic Park” movie set at the invitation of director Steven Spielberg. That visit led to connections with leading paleontologists.

“At that point in my life, I was interested in dinosaurs, but I’d never been professionally or seriously, in a scientific sense, into dinosaurs,” Myhrvold recalls. “So, the movie was a little bit instrumental in me, just as a way of meeting a bunch of those people.”

On the latest episode of the Fiction Science podcast, Myhrvold and University of Maryland paleontologist Thomas Holtz discuss how much scientists — and filmmakers — have learned about dinosaurs over the past three decades. And they also critique “Jurassic World Rebirth,” the latest offering in a multibillion-dollar movie franchise that was born back in 1993.

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Rubin Observatory throws a party to reveal first pictures

Long-exposure image of Rubin Observatory against night sky filled with star trails
A long-exposure image shows the Rubin Observatory beneath star trails. (Credit: Hernan Stockebrand via Rubin Observatory)

After more than 20 years of planning and construction, the Vera C. Rubin Observatory is ready for its grand opening, and the world is invited.

The observatory in the foothills of the Chilean Andes features a monster of a telescope, with an 8.4-meter-wide (28-foot-wide) mirror, coupled with what’s said to be the world’s largest digital camera.

It will survey the night sky every night for at least 10 years, producing about 20 trillion bytes of data every 24 hours. It would take you more than three years of watching Netflix, or over 50 years of listening to Spotify, to use that amount of data, according to the Rubin team.

The first images and videos are due to be unveiled on June 23, during a “First Look” webcast that will be shared online and at more than 300 in-person watch parties across the globe.

What will the images look like? Mario Juric knows, but he isn’t telling.

“I cannot tell you what’s on them, but I can tell you we just finished them, and they look amazing,” Juric, a member of the Rubin team and the director of the University of Washington’s DiRAC Institute, says on the Fiction Science podcast. “I did not spend a day doing what I was supposed to be doing, because I just spent it browsing through the images. … I could teach an entire class by just zooming in on different parts of this image and explaining what this object is.”

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Fiction Science Club

How humans can hold the line against AI hype

Illustration: A squadron of green avatars being held back by a red hand
Strategic refusal is one of the ways to counter AI hype. (Bigstock Illustration / Digitalista)

Don’t call ChatGPT a chatbot. Call it a conversation simulator. Don’t think of DALL-E as a creator of artistic imagery. Instead, think of it as a synthetic media extruding machine. In fact, avoid thinking that what generative AI does is actually artificial intelligence.

That’s part of the prescription for countering the hype over artificial intelligence, from the authors of a new book titled “The AI Con.”

“‘Artificial intelligence’ is an inherently anthropomorphizing term,” Emily M. Bender, a linguistics professor at the University of Washington, explains in the latest episode of the Fiction Science podcast. “It sells the tech as more than it is — because instead of this being a system for, for example, automatically transcribing or automatically adjusting the sound levels in a recording, it’s ‘artificial intelligence,’ and so it might be able to do so much more.”

In their book and in the podcast, Bender and her co-author, Alex Hanna, point out the bugaboos of AI marketing. They argue that the benefits produced by AI are being played up, while the costs are being played down. And they say the biggest benefits go to the ventures that sell the software — or use AI as a justification for downgrading the status of human workers.

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Fiction Science Club

Dictators weaponize new technologies in fact and fiction

Illustration: Huge eye formed from ones and zeros
Surveillance tools and artificial intelligence are making life easier for Big Brother. (BigStock Illustration / Valery Brozhinsky)

When Ray Nayler began writing his science-fiction novel about a repressive regime powered by artificial intelligence, he didn’t expect the story to be as timely as it turned out to be. He really wishes it wasn’t.

“This is not a world that I think we should want to live in, and I would love it if it is a world that we completely avoid, and if the book seems in 10 to 20 years to be extraordinarily naive in its predictions,” Nayler says in the latest episode of the Fiction Science podcast.

Nayler’s new novel, “Where the Axe Is Buried,” draws upon his experience working on international development in Russia and other former Soviet republics for the Peace Corps and the U.S. Foreign Service. “I added it up, and I’ve spent over a decade in authoritarian states,” he says. “And so I have, fortunately or unfortunately, a lot of experience with this problem.”

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