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GeekWire

Prediction: Human-level AI is just a few ‘miracles’ away

Will artificial intelligence ever catch up with human intelligence? And if it does, is humanity doomed? Intellectual Ventures CEO Nathan Myhrvold, who had the job of predicting the future of tech during Microsoft’s early years, was ready with some answers this week at GeekWire’s Microsoft@50 anniversary event.

The feature that AI still lacks is the ability to create a new abstract concept, “imbue it with meaning and then reason about it,” said Myhrvold, who joined Microsoft in 1986 and served as the company’s first chief technology officer.

“I think we’ll get there, but that’s at least one miracle that needs to be figured out, and I variously have thought there was like three to five miracles that need to be done. Who knows?” he said during the March 20 event at Town Hall Seattle. “And that could happen tomorrow, or maybe it already happened tonight, and they just haven’t told us. Or it could take another 10 years.”

GeekWire co-founder Todd Bishop returned to the topic a minute later. “Did I hear correctly that we’re three to five miracles away from AI that’s as powerful or as intelligent as humans?” he asked.

“Yes,” Myhrvold replied.

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Cosmic Space

Sky survey boosts the case for dark energy’s downturn

It’s looking more and more as if dark energy, the mysterious factor that scientists say is behind the accelerating expansion of the universe, isn’t as constant as they once thought.

The latest findings from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument, or DESI, don’t quite yet come up to the level of a confirmed discovery, but they’re leading scientists to rethink their views on the evolution of the universe — and how it might end.

Readings from DESI’s Data Release 2, published on March 19, suggest dark energy’s influence isn’t as strong as it used to be. Scientists had thought that the universe’s endless expansion would eventually lead to a state of cosmic stasis known as the “Big Chill.” But if dark energy fizzles out, billions or trillions of years from now, the universe may fall back on itself and end up in a reverse Big Bang, or “Big Crunch.”

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GeekWire

Museum adds a big Blue rocket engine to its collection

Seattle’s Museum of Flight has brought its collection of space artifacts up to the present day, thanks to a rocket engine that’s been donated by Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin space venture.

The BE-3U rocket engine, which was used for on-the-ground development work that included hot-fire testing, was installed in the museum’s Charles Simonyi Space Gallery on Monday. Eventually, a 16-foot-tall model of Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket will take its place beside the engine.

Two BE-3U engines power the upper stage of the New Glenn orbital-class rocket, which was sent into orbit from the Kent, Wash.-based company’s Florida launch pad for the first time in January. That mission served to test not only the rocket, but also prototype components for Blue Origin’s Blue Ring spacecraft platform. The next New Glenn launch is expected in late spring.

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GeekWire

Portal provides a sneak peek at solar propulsion system

BOTHELL, Wash. — From the outside, Portal Space Systems’ headquarters looks like a standard-issue office space in a Bothell business park. But inside, the Portal team is working to harness the heat of the sun, to speed up how spacecraft get around.

“Think about it as finally bringing what you see in Star Trek into reality in orbit, to actually move spacecraft the way Hollywood had originally intended,” Jeff Thornburg, Portal’s CEO and co-founder, said at today’s ribbon-cutting ceremony for the 8,000-square-foot development lab and HQ.

The hardware that’s spread across Portal’s lab tells you that the four-year-old venture is no typical business-park tenant: In one corner, there’s a gleaming vacuum chamber where components for Portal’s solar thermal propulsion system are being tested. In another corner, a 3D printer stands ready to turn out the parts for subscale test models of the system’s heat-exchanger thruster.

Portal plans to build the system into its Supernova satellite platform. Supernova is designed to use foldable mirrors to focus the sun’s rays onto a heat exchanger. When ammonia passes through the heat exchanger, it rapidly builds up pressure and produces thrust.

Thornburg said the system provides several advantages over traditional rocket thrusters. For example, there’s no need for oxidizers or hard-to-handle cryogenic fuels. “We’re not burning anything,” Thornburg said. “We’re just concentrating the solar energy.”

The biggest advantage is that Supernova should be able to push itself and its attached payload into different orbits much more quickly than your typical spacecraft. “It has the ability to maneuver like nothing else that exists in orbit, which means it can go from low Earth orbit or medium Earth orbit to geostationary orbits within hours or a day,” Thornburg said. “Or it can move from one orbit to another quickly to accomplish a commercial or a defense mission with speeds that typically take weeks and months.”

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Cosmic Space

Get ready to see a total lunar eclipse (or maybe not)

The first total lunar eclipse since 2022 will turn the full moon an eerie shade of red on the night of March 13-14 — but your chances of seeing it with your own eyes will depend on where you are.

North Americans should have great seats for the eclipse this time around. The key phases of the show, from the time the moon begins to enter the darkest part of Earth’s shadow to the time it leaves, should be visible to the entire continent.

But add some emphasis to the word “should.” In order to see the darkened moon with your own eyes, the skies have to be clear.

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GeekWire

Blue Origin is on deck to send NASA payload to the moon

NASA says it has penciled in Blue Origin’s Blue Moon MK1 cargo lander to deliver a scientific payload to the moon’s south polar region as soon as this summer.

The uncrewed lander would rank as the largest spacecraft sent to the moon’s surface, and would set the stage for a larger crewed lander that would be used for moon missions in the 2030s. By that time, if all proceeds according to plan, SpaceX’s Starship would take over the top spot as the world’s most massive moon ship.

Blue Origin was created by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos in 2000 and is headquartered in Kent, Wash. For years, Bezos has voiced a strong interest in lunar exploration. “It’s time to go back to the moon, but this time to stay,” he declared in 2017.

NASA’s payload for Blue Origin’s first mission to the moon is a suite of cameras that’s designed to record how the blast from Blue Moon’s engines disturbs the dirt and rocks at the lunar landing site. The data from that experiment — known as Stereo Cameras for Lunar Plume Surface Studies, or SCALPSS — would be factored into the preparations for crewed landings.

Similar payloads flew on Intuitive Machines’ Odysseus lander, which conducted a partially successful mission on the moon last year; and on Firefly Aerospace’s Blue Ghost M1 lander, which landed on the moon earlier this month. The data from the Blue Moon mission would give NASA a better sense of what to expect when a heavier spacecraft touches down.

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Fiction Science Club

How humans can reinvent themselves for life in space

Let’s face it: Space is a hostile environment for humans. Even on Mars, settlers might have a hard time coping with potentially lethal levels of radiation, scarce resources and reduced gravity.

In “Mickey 17” — a new sci-fi movie from Bong Joon Ho, the South Korean filmmaker who made his mark with “Parasite” — an expendable space traveler named Mickey (Robert Pattinson) is exposed over and over again to deadly risks. And every time he’s killed, the lab’s 3D printer just churns out another copy of Mickey.

“He’s dying to save mankind,” the movie’s poster proclaims.

While it’s possibly to create 3D-printed body parts for implantation, the idea of printing out a complete human body and restoring its backed-up memories is pure science fiction. Nevertheless, Christopher Mason, a Cornell University biomedical researcher who studies space-related health issues, is intrigued by the movie’s premise.

“If you could 3D print a body and perfectly reconstruct it, you could, in theory, learn a lot about a body that’s put in a more dangerous situation,” he says in the latest episode of the Fiction Science podcast. “I think the concept of the movie is actually quite interesting.”

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Universe Today

SpaceX Starship test falls short for second time in a row

For the second time in a row, SpaceX lost the second stage of its Starship launch system during a flight test, while recovering the first-stage Super Heavy booster.

Today’s eighth Starship flight test came a month and a half after a similarly less-than-perfect mission that sparked an investigation.

“The primary reason we do these flight tests is to learn,” SpaceX launch commentator Dan Huot said. “We have some more to learn about this vehicle.”

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Cosmic Space

Hubble spots potential threesome on solar system’s edge

Three bodies? No problem!

The “three-body problem” has traditionally referred to the devilishly tricky challenge of working out the trajectories of three objects orbiting each other in space. The concept has inspired a sci-fi trilogy about an alien invasion, plus a Netflix series based on the novels.

In the books and in the TV show, the alien invaders are coming from the Alpha Centauri star system — where three stars are gravitationally bound to each other just a little more than 4 light-years away from us. But we don’t have to look that far away to find a three-body system.

Back in 2020, astronomers reported the detection of a trio of celestial objects in the Kuiper Belt, the broad ring of icy material at our solar system’s edge — and now scientists analyzing data from the Hubble Space Telescope and the W.M. Keck Observatory say they may have come across the Kuiper Belt’s second three-body system.

A report about the system, known as Altjira, was published today in The Planetary Science Journal.

“The universe is filled with a range of three-body systems, including the closest stars to Earth, the Alpha Centauri star system, and we’re finding that the Kuiper Belt may be no exception,” study lead author Maia Nelsen, a physics and astronomy graduate of Brigham Young University, said in a NASA news release.

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GeekWire

Blue Origin’s next space trip will feature all-female crew

The next suborbital spaceflight planned by Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin space venture is due to follow through on the dream of Bezos’ fiancee, Lauren Sanchez, to lead an all-woman crew — and that crew will include pop superstar Katy Perry and morning-TV host Gayle King.

Three advocates for women in science, technology, engineering and math, or STEM, will round out the six-person crew for a mission known as NS-31, Blue Origin announced today. The flight date hasn’t yet been announced, but the company says it will launch this spring.

“This will be the first all-female flight crew since Valentina Tereshkova’s solo spaceflight in 1963,” Blue Origin said in a reference to the Soviet space pioneer.

Sanchez called her crewmates “fearless explorers” in a posting to Threads. “I really see this group as explorers, and storytellers, each of us about to be changed by a remarkable view of our beautiful planet,” she said. “The countdown starts now!”